The Case for Numerical Ocean Modelling

Numerical modelling plays a crucial role in understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of the ocean as it provides information, throughout the water column, that is both temporally and spatially coherent. It is a powerful tool in understanding variability in and linkages between various aspects of the marine environment, including currents, temperature, salinity, nutrient distribution and ecosystem interactions. These models help researchers and policymakers gain valuable insights into the functioning of the ocean, assess potential impacts of human activities, and develop effective management strategies.

SOMISANA recognizes the significance of numerical modelling in addressing marine challenges and aims to expand South Africa's modelling capabilities. By utilizing existing global models, such as those developed 
by Copernicus Marine Services (CMEMS) and others, SOMISANA can build upon established frameworks and adapt them to regional contexts. This approach allows South Africa to leverage international expertise, data, and infrastructure while tailoring the models to address specific local concerns and conditions.

Alignment with National Imperatives

With the ratification of Operations Phakisa in 2014, an initiative to fast-track the unlocking of the economic potential of South Africa’s oceans to support the National Development Plan, it is more crucial than ever that operational information of the present and future state of the ocean is available to stakeholders and policy-makers for good governance and sustainable management of our coastal ocean. To this end, SOMISANA contributes directly to the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment's, Ocean and Coastal Information Management  System (OCIMS) whose objective is to develop and deliver operational decision support tools for various coastal stakeholders.

Alignment with International Imperatives

2021-2030 is the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development with the vision of producing the science we need for the ocean we want. Several programs have been endorsed to help achieve the seven outcomes that describe the ‘ocean we want’: a clean ocean, a healthy and resilient ocean, a productive ocean, a predicted ocean, a safe ocean, an accessible ocean and an inspiring and engaging ocean. The objectives speak to not only the development of a sustainable oceans economy, but crucially to enhanced understanding of the changing state of the ocean for effective protection of its ecosystems. Societal impact underscores the mission of the Oceans Decade, with the generation of freely accessible information intended to contribute to society’s understanding of the value of the ocean and how to respond to its changing state, to mitigate against coastal hazards and to support a sustainable food supply. To contribute meaningfully to the UN Oceans Decade, it is crucial that South Africa develop a critical mass of expert numerical modellers who are able to develop methodological approaches that are appropriate to its socio-economic context.